West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State Prediction: Are you expecting a shootout in Stillwater?

• CFN FPM spread
  Oklahoma State -3.5
• Spread
  Oklahoma State -4
• Money line
  Oklahoma State -198, West Virginia +164
• Over/Under
  65.5 points
• Playtime
  October 5, 4 p.m. ET
• Location
  Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK.
• Predicted weather at Kick
  89 degrees, sunny, six mile per hour wind
• Here’s how to watch
  ESPN2

College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter and Vegas are aligned on this score, as both have the Cowboys as slight favorites. With a spread of 3.5 points and a total score of 65.5, Vegas suggests a final score of around 35-31 in favor of the Cowboys.

MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator

Both offenses have high scoring potential but have been hot and cold this season. Meanwhile, the defense can leave a lot to be desired.

The line started with Oklahoma State almost a touchdown favorite and has quickly fallen back to its current position.

West Virginia’s probability of winning

The Football Playoff Meter originally rated the Mountaineers’ chances slightly higher than Vegas’. The betting public seemed to agree, which pushed the number down.

FPM has West Virginia as a four-point underdog, giving it a 39.4% win probability. That represents the Mountaineers’ second-lowest probability of victory with one game remaining, tied with next week’s game against Iowa State and behind a road game at Arizona.

The Mountaineers’ win probabilities for the remainder of the season are listed below.

• at Oklahoma State: 39.4%
• vs. Iowa State: 39.4%
• against Kansas State: 47.2%
• in Arizona: 27%
• in Cincinnati: 54.3%
• against Baylow: 66.4%
• against UCF: 57.4%
• at Texas Tech: 49.2%

Oklahoma State’s probability of winning

Conversely, Oklahoma State has a 60.6% chance of winning on Saturday. FPM leads the Cowboys in six of the remaining seven games, but never by more than six points, meaning there are several games that could go either way.

Accordingly, Saturday’s clash with West Virginia is extremely important to OSU’s postseason hopes, especially after a two-game losing streak. The Cowboys’ win probabilities for the remainder of the season are listed below.

• against West Virginia: 60.6%
• at BYU: 35.4%
• at Baylor: 60.6%
• vs. Arizona State: 66.4%
• at TCU: 51.8%
• vs. Texas Tech: 63.4%
• in Colorado: 50.4%

West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State Prediction

From a college football fan’s perspective, watching Oklahoma State is unnerving. The Cowboys have one of the best running backs in the country and still rank 131st in rushing rate. It’s not like they were good at running the ball, but it’s not like they tried either.

West Virginia’s defense has been atrocious this season, allowing 9.9 yards per pass attempt and 4.6 yards per rush. Only solid third-down defense saved the Mountaineers, but things could get ugly for this unit.

The Mountaineers’ offense isn’t great, but they face an Oklahoma State defense that, frankly, has been lucky this season. The Pokes rank 128th in total defense but have 10 takeaways despite not having a big pass rush, and opponents have struggled in the red zone. Their opponents have also missed 45% of their field goals against them.

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Both offenses should be able to move the ball, and West Virginia was good enough to capitalize on some of those scoring opportunities that many of the Cowboys’ opponents were unable to capitalize on.

Expect a shootout and don’t be afraid of a total blackout in the 60s. While I expect some of Oklahoma State’s turnover luck to fade, the offense should have some room to run and throw. I’ll call the Cowboys straight, but the Mountaineers are a thriller.

Forecast: Oklahoma State 38, West Virginia 35

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