Revenge or regroup? Middle East prepares for Iran’s next move after Beirut attack | World News

For all the saber rattling, what Iran calls its powerful “Axis of Resistance” has actually exposed its soft underbelly. Both Hezbollah, the main asset in that axis, and Iran itself are weakened and have few options, making them unlikely to escalate the conflict, according to a person familiar with U.S. thinking.

An Arab official said it was more of a wild card whether Israel pursues further targets to harm Hezbollah as the U.S. focuses on the presidential election campaign. Nasrallah’s killing was already followed by an attack on the group’s nervous system through exploding pagers and walkie-talkies they used to communicate.

“Iran will be forced to respond, and the chorus of people demanding revenge will grow even larger,” said Dina Esfandiary, senior Middle East and North Africa adviser at the International Crisis Group. “But this government does not want to become embroiled in a conflict it cannot win. So you have to measure their reaction.”

There have been early signs from officials that the Islamic Republic will show the kind of restraint it has shown after Israel’s other recent provocations. This is not least because Israel is militarily superior and the US has deployed more troops to the region to deter a major attack on its ally.

Meanwhile, Khamenei’s first statement a day earlier emphasized the fact that Hezbollah has enough people to replace Nasrallah and that “the axis of resistance will decide the fate of the region.”

The rhetoric from Tehran reflects the desire of the clerical and military establishment to keep the war at a distance. In the short term, the task will be to restore the strength of the militant groups it supports in the region and ensure that it does not become embroiled in a full-scale war.

According to Vali Nasr, a former senior adviser to the US State Department and professor of Middle Eastern studies at Johns Hopkins University, the priority in Lebanon is to preserve the remnants of Hezbollah. The group is considered a terrorist organization by the United States and many of its allies such as Hamas.

“The priority for Iran is deterrence – it doesn’t want a major war right now and suspects Israel does,” Nasr said. “It’s not about avenging Nasrallah, but about rebuilding her position.”

Iran’s vulnerability has become impossible to hide lately. Amid a series of serious attacks on Iranian allies and personnel, former President Ebrahim Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash, leading to an election that ushered in reformist leader Pezeshkian in July. But the weakness goes back even further.

The Hezbollah chief’s death is reminiscent of the U.S. overthrow of Qassem Soleimani, Iran’s most prominent general and national hero, in early 2020. That was during the presidency of Donald Trump, an Iran hawk who was one of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s main coalition partners advocated a return to the White House.

“It is a big blow after Soleimani was killed and his successor in many ways was Nasrallah,” Nasr said. “He was an iconic figure and a lynchpin, and he cannot be easily replaced, nor can Hezbollah be rebuilt quickly.”

Allies Syria and Iraq are becoming important channels for the transfer of Hezbollah resources, according to a source with direct knowledge of military movements in northeastern Syria and Iranian militias operating in both countries.

Iran will now seek to move thousands of fighters to border areas between Lebanon and Syria, the source said, adding that several thousand fighters have flown from Iraq to Syria in the last two months, suggesting Tehran is preparing for this to strengthen its deterrence.

Since its involvement in Syria in 2012 to defend Bashar al-Assad’s regime alongside other Iranian-backed militias, Hezbollah has established bases and a sophisticated network of tunnels in areas of Syria near the Lebanese border. Many Hezbollah field commanders and their families also fled Lebanon for Syria, according to a person familiar with the situation.

“Iran is not fighting for its proxies, its proxies are fighting for it,” said Jonathan Lord, a former Pentagon official and director of the Middle East security program at the Center for a New American Security. “The regime is primarily interested in self-preservation and will not knowingly put itself at risk.”

A commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was also killed in Israel’s massive attack on southern Beirut to eliminate Nasrallah. This brings the number of killings of high-ranking IRGC officers and employees, as well as high-ranking members of proxy groups, to at least a dozen since the Hamas attacks on October 7 last year.

While the loss of Nasrallah and the weakening of Hezbollah’s leadership represents a major loss for both the organization and Iran, it is unlikely to result in any change or rethinking of Iran’s foreign and regional policies. Pezeshkian has won Khamenei’s tacit support for pursuing a policy of cautious dialogue with the West to seek relief from economic sanctions.

To do this, it must be ensured that relations with the USA and Europe do not deteriorate further, even if Israel continues to put Iran under military pressure.

As Miri Eisen, a retired Israeli intelligence colonel and former spokeswoman for the prime minister, put it: The attack on Beirut and the assassination of Nasrallah are not a “checkmate.”

“This will not eliminate Hezbollah,” she said. “Hezbollah’s arsenal is ten times larger than what Hamas ever had. Hezbollah still has the support of the Islamic regime in Iran and an open path to it.”

In fact, the bombing of Hezbollah’s leadership and members has once again exposed the Islamic Republic’s limits when it comes to striking back against Israel.

Tehran’s April rocket attack, foiled by Israel with help from its allies, was the extent of Iran’s response to Israel so far, although its generals often warned of “devastating” or “severe” retaliation. It raised questions about whether Iran was actually capable of carrying out the threats.

“It’s very clear that Iran is also somewhat stunned by all of this and needs time to regroup,” said Barbara Slavin, a distinguished scholar at the Stimson Center, a U.S. foreign policy think tank. “The Iranians will remain cautious, they understand that Israel is still in a mood to escalate and strike. “They will return to guerrilla tactics and strategic patience.”