Austria’s right-wing extremist Freedom Party is heading for its first national election victory

Austria’s far-right Freedom Party was on track for its first victory in a national parliamentary election on Sunday, finishing ahead of the ruling Conservatives after capitalizing on voters’ worries about immigration, inflation, Ukraine and other concerns, a forecast showed . But his chances of governing were unclear.

A projection by public broadcaster ORF television, based on counting more than half of the votes, showed that the Freedom Party was at 29.2% and Chancellor Karl Nehammer’s Austrian People’s Party was at 26.3%. The center-left Social Democrats were in third place with 20.5%.

Herbert Kickl, a former interior minister and long-time campaign strategist who has led the Freedom Party since 2021, wants to become Austria’s new chancellor after the first right-wing extremist election victory in Austria since the Second World War.

But to become Austria’s new leader he would need a coalition partner with a majority in the lower house of parliament – and rivals have said they would not work with Kickl in government.

The far-right has capitalized on voter frustration over high inflation, the war in Ukraine and the COVID pandemic. It is also based on concerns about migration.

In its election program entitled “Fortress Austria”, the Freedom Party calls for the “repatriation of uninvited foreigners”, a “more homogeneous” nation through strict border controls and the suspension of the right to asylum via emergency law.

The Freedom Party is also calling for an end to sanctions against Russia, is sharply critical of Western military aid to Ukraine and wants to withdraw from the European Sky Shield Initiative, a missile defense project launched by Germany. Kickl criticized the “elites” in Brussels and called for some powers to be returned from the European Union to Austria.

“We don’t have to change our position because we have always said that we are ready to lead a government, we are ready to drive this change in Austria together with the people,” Kickl said in an appearance alongside other party leaders on ORF. “The other parties should ask themselves where they stand on democracy,” he added, arguing that they should “sleep on the result.”

Nehammer said it was “bitter” that his party missed out on first place, but also noted that he had regained it from lower poll numbers. He has often said that he would not enter into a coalition with Kickl, saying: “What I said before the election, I will say after the election.”

More than 6.3 million people aged 16 and over were eligible to vote for the new parliament in Austria, an EU member state that pursues a policy of military neutrality.

Kickl has managed a turnaround since the last Austrian parliamentary election in 2019. In June, the Freedom Party narrowly won a nationwide vote for the first time in the European elections, which also brought gains to other European far-right parties. The party is a long-established political force, but Sunday’s predicted result, if confirmed, would be its best ever in a national general election – surpassing the 26.9% it achieved in 1999.

In 2019, her support fell to 16.2% after a scandal brought down a government in which she was the junior coalition partner. Then-Vice Chancellor and FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache resigned after a secretly recorded video was released in which he appeared to offer favors to an alleged Russian investor.

The leader of the Social Democrats, a party that led many post-war Austrian governments, positioned himself as the exact opposite of Kickl. Andreas Babler ruled out a right-wing extremist government and described Kickl as “a threat to democracy”.

While the Freedom Party has recovered, the popularity of Nehammer’s People’s Party, which currently leads a coalition government with the environmentalist Greens as junior partners, has fallen sharply compared to 2019. Support for the Greens is also likely to fall to just under 9%. The outgoing coalition appeared to be well behind the majority.

During the election campaign, Nehammer portrayed his party, which has taken a tough line on immigration in recent years, as “the strong center” that would guarantee stability in multiple crises.

But those crises, ranging from the COVID-19 pandemic to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting rising energy prices and inflation, also cost it support. In 2022, the government also angered many Austrians with a short-lived corona vaccination requirement, the first in Europe.

But recent flooding from Storm Boris, which hit Austria and other countries in central Europe, has brought the environment back into the election debate and may have helped Nehammer narrow the gap somewhat.

The People’s Party is the extreme right’s only route into government.

Nehammer has repeatedly ruled out joining a government led by Kickl, calling it a “security risk” for the country. However, he has not ruled out a coalition with the Freedom Party – which would mean that Kickl would forego a position in the government.

The likelihood of Kickl agreeing to such a deal if he wins the election is very low, said leading political scientist Peter Filzmaier before the election.

The most likely alternative would be an alliance between the People’s Party and the Social Democrats – with or without the liberal Neos, which received around 9% of the vote.